{"id":8790,"date":"2022-11-11T08:45:38","date_gmt":"2022-11-11T06:45:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/?p=8790"},"modified":"2022-11-11T08:48:55","modified_gmt":"2022-11-11T06:48:55","slug":"inflation-is-not-coming-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/inflation-is-not-coming-down\/2022\/11\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation is not coming down"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bad news: inflation may not be coming down. Worse, it is going back up. “Well”, you say, “Everyone else says it is coming down…”. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Okay, I’ll explain this train-of-thought : <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CPI YoY chart indicates inflation is going down. If you look at the data : we were at 8.20% inflation last month, and now 7.75%. That is 0.45% less inflation. Hurrah, we’re doing great !<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But… that 7.75% is from this october, compared to october last year. And from september to october last year, we had a 0.83% increase in inflation. So your ‘basis of comparison’ is 0.83% higher from september 21 to october 21. So october 22 will automatically show a 0.83% improvement if prices remained the same. But CPI yoy only shows 0,45% improvement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>2021<\/td>2022<\/td>combined<\/td><\/tr>
sep<\/td>5,39<\/td>8,2<\/td>13,59<\/td><\/tr>
oct<\/td>6,22 (+0,83)<\/td>7,75 (-0,45)<\/td>13,97 (+0,38)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Thus, if you take 2020 as ‘zero\/baseline’, and add the yoy per month inflation, where it seems inflation came down in october 2022 by 0.45%, the comined inflation compared to 2020, is actually going up 0.38%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the US CPI yoy per month :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can take 2020 as baseline, “zero”. There was a slight inflation throughout the year, but it is mostly around 1%, 2%. That means you can use the year as a baseline. You can add 2021 and 2022, month to month. January plus january, february plus february, and so on. And then you get the combined cumulative inflation since 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>2021<\/td>2022<\/td>combined<\/td><\/tr>
jan<\/td>1,4<\/td>7,48<\/td>8,88<\/td><\/tr>
feb<\/td>1,68<\/td>7,87<\/td>9,55<\/td><\/tr>
mrt<\/td>2,62<\/td>8,45<\/td>11,07<\/td><\/tr>
apr<\/td>4,16<\/td>8,26<\/td>12,42<\/td><\/tr>
may<\/td>4,99<\/td>8,58<\/td>13,57<\/td><\/tr>
jun<\/td>5,39<\/td>9,06<\/td>14,45<\/td><\/tr>
jul<\/td>5,37<\/td>8,52<\/td>13,89<\/td><\/tr>
aug<\/td>5,25<\/td>8,26<\/td>13,51<\/td><\/tr>
sep<\/td>5,39<\/td>8,2<\/td>13,59<\/td><\/tr>
oct<\/td>6,22<\/td>7,75<\/td>13,97<\/td><\/tr>
nov<\/td>6,81<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
dec<\/td>7,04<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This table shows that June was indeed the actual peak inflation. Inflation has been diminishing slightly from july up to september , but last month, october, it went back up again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can see it more clearly in this graph : blue is 2021, red is 2022, yellow is combined. The yellow graph is going up again, blue went up more than red went down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So if you bought in the relief rally, well, keep an eye on the market, because the market may not do what you expect. We are not at the bottom, yet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Contrary to what the graphs say, inflation may not be coming down, yet<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5796,"featured_media":8793,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[119,457],"tags":[47],"class_list":["post-8790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency","category-economy","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5796"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8790"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8790\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8798,"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8790\/revisions\/8798"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.juust.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}